The Great Decoupling: How Trump Is Exporting America’s Future to Europe
While the White House threatens escalation abroad and tariffs at home, American companies are building strategic capacity in Europe and allied governments are engineering their way off American technology, weapons and energy. The divorce is no longer just diplomatic. It is being written into factories, procurement rules and software code, and American families are paying the bill.
For eighty years, the bargain was simple: America’s allies bought American, ran on American software, flew American jets and burned American fuel, and in exchange they got a reliable partner. In the twenty months since Donald Trump returned to office, that bargain has been torn up from the American side. He has slapped tariffs on allies to pressure Denmark into selling Greenland, sanctioned the world’s war-crimes court, launched an unauthorized war with Iran that has sent fuel prices to records, and told Congress its votes to end that war do not bind him. The result is now visible on balance sheets across the Atlantic. Allies are not just complaining. They are leaving.
The most striking sign is that American companies themselves are following the money and the trust out the door. On September 22, San Francisco–based Planet Labs opened a satellite factory in Berlin built to turn out 60 Pelican satellites a year, with Germany’s national investment agency helping it find the site. The company’s pitch to European customers was explicit: production in Berlin, mission operations from Germany, European ground stations and data on European clouds, according to The Berlin Spectator, offered as reassurance when asked about the reach of the U.S. government over sensitive data. Read that again. An American company is now selling its distance from Washington as a feature.
I. Capacity Moves East
Planet Labs is not a minor player. CEO Will Marshall says the company has built and launched 688 satellites over 15 years, and the Berlin site becomes its second full production line after San Francisco. Its first German-built satellite will ride a German rocket, with Bloomberg reporting a launch contract with Isar Aerospace for early 2027 as European governments work to reduce dependence on SpaceX. The 70 new high-skill jobs in Mitte are jobs that, in a saner policy climate, would have gone to California, Colorado or Florida.
Energy tells the same story. On September 30, Bloomberg reported a draft joint statement in which the European Union and Canada commit to new undersea cables and expanded fuel shipments under an “Alliance for the Future” explicitly meant to counterbalance both the United States and China, to be endorsed at an EU–Canada summit on October 29 and 30. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told CTV’s Question Period that Europe has a market for more Canadian LNG, and Germany’s state-owned SEFE already has a deal for up to 20 years of supply from British Columbia’s Ksi Lisims project. French President Emmanuel Macron, meeting Prime Minister Mark Carney in Saint-Pierre and Miquelon, called Canadian LNG projects important for Europe, according to EnergyNow. Days later, LNG Canada green-lit a $32 billion Phase 2 expansion, with Canadian coverage noting Ottawa’s drive to diversify away from its tense relationship with Washington.
Why should Americans care? Because Europe has been one of the best customers American gas producers have. France and the Netherlands alone took roughly a fifth of all U.S. LNG exports last year, per Industrial Info Resources. Every long-term contract signed with Canada instead is revenue, jobs and leverage that leaves the Gulf Coast for a generation.
Space · Berlin
Satellites Planet Labs’ new Berlin plant is designed to build, its second full production site worldwide. GTAI
Energy · Canada
LNG Canada’s Phase 2 expansion, approved as Europe courts Canadian gas over American supply. BNN Bloomberg
Defense · Germany
Share of Germany’s 154 planned major defense purchases going to U.S. suppliers under its procurement plan. Courthouse News
Software · Netherlands
Dutch municipalities already trialing the NixOS-based government workspace replacing Microsoft. Tom’s Hardware
II. The Dutch Lesson: When Sanctions Hit Your Own Products
No case shows the self-inflicted nature of this damage more clearly than the Netherlands. When the administration sanctioned the International Criminal Court in The Hague, its chief prosecutor lost access to Microsoft services, including email. The Dutch government drew the obvious conclusion: if Washington can switch off a court’s inbox, it can switch off a ministry’s.
The response is called DAWO, the Digital Autonomous Work Environment for Government. Tom’s Hardware reports it is built on the Linux-based NixOS, delivered by three state IT providers (SSC-ICT, DICTU and DUO-ICT) under the Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations. Eight municipalities are running trials now, and the first stable release is due at the end of 2027. The same report notes that Germany has already moved off Microsoft systems and that Denmark and France are rethinking their own technology stacks.
This is the part the White House refuses to understand. Microsoft is an American company, paying American taxes and employing American engineers. A sanction meant to punish an international court has instead taught a NATO ally’s entire government to stop buying American software, and its neighbors are taking notes. That is not strength. It is a president spending the country’s commercial credibility to settle a political score.
III. Allies Rearm Without Us
Europe is spending more on defense than at any point since the Cold War, the very outcome Trump demanded, and it is steering that money away from American contractors. The EU’s readiness plan requires that 55 percent of weapons purchases come from European or Ukrainian manufacturers by 2030, as Courthouse News reported. In August, Breaking Defense documented a serious continental push to avoid any weapon containing U.S.-controlled parts, so that Washington can never again dictate how an ally uses what it bought. On September 30, U.S. Ambassador to the EU Andrew Puzder attacked the “Buy European” push as self-interest. Europeans might reasonably answer that self-interest is exactly what this administration taught them.
The turning point came in January, when Trump announced 10 percent tariffs on Denmark and seven other European allies, rising to 25 percent, until a deal was reached for what he called the complete and total purchase of Greenland, as NBC News reported. He dropped the threat days later in Davos, but by then, as Al Jazeera noted, some $1.7 trillion in transatlantic trade had been put in doubt. Allies learned that a treaty partner could be coerced by tariff over territory. They have been hedging ever since.
“The use of tariffs against allies is completely wrong.”
— UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, January 2026, via Al Jazeera
IV. The Bill Comes Home
The decoupling would hurt in any economy. It is landing on households already battered by a war of choice. The United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. The day before, gas cost just under $3 a gallon; by late September it was near $4.50, the highest ever for that time of year, and diesel hit a record $6.52, according to NBC News. Brown University’s Iran War Energy Cost Tracker found Americans had paid more than $100 billion in extra fuel costs by Labor Day, over $760 per household, per Axios. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge sat at 3.4 percent in August, with energy driving the monthly increase, CNN reported.
On trade, the courts have repeatedly told the president he overstepped. The Supreme Court struck down his emergency-powers tariffs in February. Within hours he imposed a new global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act, then raised it to 15 percent, an authority that lapses after 150 days unless Congress renews it, as Brookings experts explained. In May, the Court of International Trade ruled that tariff unlawful too, finding no balance-of-payments crisis of the kind the law requires, per the American Society of International Law. Tariffs are taxes paid at the checkout counter. They are being stacked on top of a war-driven energy shock while the country’s best customers sign contracts elsewhere.
For the average American, the arithmetic is plain. You pay more to fill the tank and more for anything shipped by truck. You pay tariff costs baked into groceries, car seats and building materials. And over the long run, you lose the export markets, investment and high-wage jobs that come with being the partner the world trusts. Capacity that leaves in a crisis rarely comes back when the crisis ends.
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- Feb 2025
Sanctions on the ICC cut its prosecutor off from Microsoft email, setting the Dutch exit in motion. - Jan 17, 2026
Greenland tariffs announced on Denmark and seven allies; dropped four days later in Davos. - Feb 20, 2026
Supreme Court strikes down emergency tariffs; Trump imposes Section 122 duties the same day. - Feb 28, 2026
U.S. and Israel attack Iran without congressional authorization; fuel prices begin to climb. - Apr 7, 2026
More than 70 Democrats call for the 25th Amendment or impeachment after Trump’s threat against Iranian civilization. - May 7, 2026
Trade court rules the Section 122 global tariff unlawful. - Sept 15, 2026
House passes a third Iran war powers resolution, 220–204, with seven Republicans. - Sept 22, 2026
Planet Labs opens its Berlin satellite factory. - Sept 24, 2026
Senate fails to end the war by a single vote, 49–50. - Sept 30, 2026
EU–Canada “Alliance for the Future” draft revealed; U.S. envoy attacks “Buy European.”
V. What Congress Is Doing, and What It Isn’t
Democrats in the minority have used the tools they have. In the House, Rep. Gregory Meeks, the top Democrat on Foreign Affairs, led floor debate as the chamber passed its third Iran war powers resolution on September 15, 220 to 204, with Republican support rising from four votes to seven. Meeks argued that Congress never authorized the war and that the administration has no plan to win or end it. In the Senate, the measure failed 49 to 50 on September 24. Republicans Rand Paul, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Thom Tillis joined Democrats; Democrat John Fetterman voted no, and Angela Alsobrooks was absent, according to The Washington Post. One vote separated the country from forcing an end to the war that is draining its wallets.
On costs, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer launched a 2026 cost-cutting initiative centered on health care, energy, housing, groceries and tariffs, with Sens. Ed Markey and Raphael Warnock leading on trade. Democrats note that the Senate has passed three tariff-disapproval bills with Republican votes, and they back the bipartisan Grassley–Cantwell bill to give Congress a veto over Section 232 tariffs. None has become law, because House Republican leaders and a presidential veto stand in the way.
That is the honest limit of a minority party. Democrats can force votes, build records and pull Republicans across the aisle one by one. They cannot yet pass a law over this president’s objection. That is why the next five weeks matter so much.
A President Who Burns the Nation’s Alliances Is Failing to Discharge His Office
The mechanism
Section 4 allows the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet to declare that a president is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office,” making the vice president acting president. If the president contests it, Congress decides, and a two-thirds vote of both chambers is required to keep him sidelined, as The Hill summarizes.
Who has called for it
In January, after Trump tied his Greenland campaign to being denied a Nobel Peace Prize, Sen. Ed Markey and Reps. Yassamin Ansari, Eric Swalwell and Sydney Kamlager-Dove called for invoking the amendment, TIME reported. In April, more than 70 Democratic lawmakers backed removal or impeachment after his threat against Iran, per NBC News. Sen. Chris Murphy agreed, and Rep. Dan Goldman called it a matter of national security. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries scheduled a caucus briefing on the amendment led by Rep. Jamie Raskin, according to Fox News. Notably, CNN found some former Trump allies joining the call.
The constitutional argument
Inability is not limited to a coma or a stroke. The amendment’s purpose is continuity of competent executive power. A president who threatens to annex an ally’s territory, punishes allies with tariffs as leverage over that demand, wages a war Congress has voted to end, and dismisses binding trade rulings with fresh workarounds is displaying a sustained incapacity to exercise the office in the nation’s interest. Each act has an economic cost the country can measure, and each was announced impulsively, often on social media, against the advice of the institutions built to prevent exactly these harms.
The practical barriers
The obstacles are real. The Cabinet consists of officials Trump chose for loyalty. Vice President JD Vance has shown no willingness to act. Even if they did, a contested declaration needs two-thirds of the House and Senate, numbers that do not exist today. Several Democrats have openly acknowledged the effort is unlikely to succeed.
Why the case still stands
Difficulty is not the same as illegitimacy. The framers of the 25th Amendment created it so that the country would have a lawful, orderly remedy short of crisis. Making that case on the record, with evidence of measurable national harm, puts every Cabinet member and every member of Congress on notice that they share responsibility for what happens next. Silence would treat the collapse of America’s alliances as normal. It is not.
“No President in control of his senses would publicly promise to eradicate an entire civilization.”
— Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), April 2026, via NBC News
VI. What You Can Do
The decoupling is driven by decisions, and decisions can be reversed. Here is where ordinary citizens have real leverage.
- Vote on November 3. Every House seat and a third of the Senate are on the ballot. The Senate missed ending the war by one vote. Confirm your registration and polling place at vote.gov today, and make a plan to vote early if your state allows it.
- Call your members of Congress. The Capitol switchboard is 202-224-3121. Ask your senators and representative to support war powers resolutions, the Grassley–Cantwell tariff check, and any measure that returns tariff power to Congress, where the Constitution puts it.
- Put the 25th Amendment on the record. Ask your representatives where they stand on Section 4, and whether they support a formal inquiry into the president’s fitness. Public pressure is what moved leadership to hold its first briefing in April.
- Tell the economic story locally. Write a letter to your local paper connecting the price at your pump and grocery store to the war and the tariffs. Lost export contracts and relocated factories are local stories in Texas, Louisiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
- Support the institutions under attack. Organizations defending the rule of law, independent courts and a free press are the guardrails that have repeatedly blocked unlawful tariffs this year.
Editorial Conclusion
A nation’s word is its most valuable export, and Donald Trump has spent it. Allies are rerouting their energy, their weapons, their satellites and even their software around the United States, and American companies are following. This is not a market cycle. It is the predictable consequence of a president who treats partners as targets, wars as personal tests and trade law as an inconvenience. Congress must reclaim its war and tariff powers now, voters must give it the majority to do so in November, and every official sworn to the Constitution must weigh whether this president can discharge his office. The republic’s prosperity was built on trust. Restoring it requires accountability, and it requires it without delay.
Sources & References
- Tom’s Hardware — US sanctions force The Netherlands off Microsoft toward NixOS-based ecosystem
- Germany Trade & Invest — US company to start making satellites in Berlin
- The Berlin Spectator — US space tech company to launch satellite production in Berlin
- Bloomberg — Planet Labs’ first German-made satellite to launch in early 2027
- Bloomberg — EU and Canada to explore new technology links and LNG sales
- CTV News — German minister says his country wants more Canadian LNG
- EnergyNow — Macron hails new chapter in Canada ties, eyes LNG deals
- BNN Bloomberg — LNG Canada to double output from B.C. terminal
- Industrial Info Resources — Can Canadian LNG find a home in Europe?
- Courthouse News — Europe’s $860 billion defense plan freezes out US contractors
- Breaking Defense — Europe wants ITAR-free weapons; US firms try to adjust
- Euronews — US ambassador slams EU’s “Buy European” weapons push
- NBC News — Trump hits 8 U.S. allies with tariffs in push for Greenland deal
- Al Jazeera — Trump drops tariff threat, says he won’t take Greenland by force
- Al Jazeera — European leaders slam Trump’s tariff threats over Greenland
- NBC News — The U.S. economy before and after the Iran war, in five charts
- Axios — Iran war drives $100 billion in extra energy costs
- CNN — US inflation remained stubborn as Iran war lifted prices
- Brookings — Brookings experts on the Supreme Court’s tariff decision
- ASIL — Court of International Trade invalidates Trump’s 10% global tariff
- The Hill — House passes Iran war powers resolution
- The Washington Post — How every senator voted on the Iran war powers resolution
- Senate Democrats — Schumer launches 2026 cost-cutting initiative
- NBC News — Dozens of Democrats call for Trump’s removal after Iran threats
- The Hill — Rep. Dan Goldman calls for invoking the 25th Amendment
- TIME — What is the 25th Amendment, and can it remove Trump?
- Fox News — House Dem leaders open door to 25th Amendment
- CNN — An eclectic, bipartisan group calls for the 25th Amendment
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