Eleven days before Election Day, the Trump administration quietly carved Maine’s farm supplies out of its 50% tariffs on Canada — an admission, written in a proclamation, that the president’s trade war is hurting the people who pay for it. But the relief goes to one swing state, the refunds went to corporations, and the bill keeps landing on American households.
On Friday, the Trump administration did something it almost never does: it conceded that its tariffs were doing damage. According to NBC News, the White House announced tariff exemptions on a slate of Canadian imports — a move NBC described as an implicit acknowledgment that the president’s signature trade policy could be costing Republican candidates ahead of the November 3 midterm election. The person who announced it first was not the president. It was Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, locked in one of the tightest Senate races in the country.
The timing tells you everything. These tariffs have squeezed American farmers, manufacturers and families for months. Relief arrived only when a Republican Senate seat was on the line.
I. The Confession in a Proclamation
The products now spared are not luxuries. As the CBC reported, they include paper and plastic products, refrigeration and packaging equipment, agricultural machinery and seaweed — goods Trump hit with a 50% tariff in August. Collins told reporters that Maine’s blueberry growers depend on specialized Canadian-made harvesting boxes built to fit their processing equipment, items that cannot simply be swapped for American substitutes. She said she lobbied U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick directly.
The White House, for its part, framed the change as a technical refinement in the public interest and never mentioned Collins. And it did not actually retreat: Global News reported that the administration removed some 50% duties while adding others. Collins’s Democratic challenger, Troy Jackson, a fifth-generation logger, has spent the campaign pointing out that the senator’s earlier wins — exemptions on road salt and concrete — were scraps; Mainers, he says, “can’t eat road salt.”
“Susan Collins … now wants credit for bringing a cup of water to put out the fire.”
— Troy Jackson, Democratic Senate candidate in Maine, via NBC News
Jackson’s point lands because Collins’s own record undercuts the rescue narrative. As The Hill recounted, she criticized the sweeping August tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods and has repeatedly called new tariffs on Canada a mistake — yet the administration she helped staff kept escalating. One Maine ready-mix cement owner told her his company would pay about $150,000 a month because of a single tariff.
II. Who Actually Pays the Tariff Tax
Donald Trump has insisted for two years that foreign countries pay his tariffs. They do not. A tariff is a tax collected at the American border from the American company that imports the good, and that company passes as much of the cost as it can down the line. CNBC, summarizing the research, reported that U.S. firms and consumers bore roughly 90% of the economic burden of the 2025 tariffs. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation — no progressive outfit — estimates the Trump tariffs raised taxes by an average of $1,000 per U.S. household in 2025, and that tariff policy has changed more than 50 times since January 2025.
That chaos has a price. The September jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed employers adding just 29,000 jobs, with unemployment edging up to 4.2%. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index sits at 48.0, according to Trading Economics — a reading that signals deep public pessimism. The White House counters that manufacturing jobs are up 72,000 this year, a figure BLS confirms; it also faces real price pressure from war-driven oil costs that are not about tariffs at all. But a president who promised a manufacturing renaissance should be judged by the whole ledger, and the ledger shows sluggish hiring, sour consumers and a tax on everything that crosses the border.
And the burden is regressive. The Yale Budget Lab found that while wealthier households pay more in raw dollars, the poorest households lose a larger share of their income — exactly the families with the least room to absorb a higher grocery or hardware bill.
III. The Courts Said Give It Back. The Corporations Kept It.
On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6–3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not give the president power to impose tariffs. As Holland & Knight explained, the decision made the president’s “reciprocal” and “trafficking” tariffs unlawful and reaffirmed that tariff authority must come from Congress. Even Justice Brett Kavanaugh, writing in dissent, warned that the refund process would likely be a “mess,” as SCOTUSblog noted. Days later, Court of International Trade Judge Richard Eaton ordered refunds with interest to virtually all importers who paid the illegal duties.
Here is the scandal: the refunds went to the importers — not to the Americans who actually absorbed the cost through higher prices. Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s office documented that companies had received at least $100 billion in refunds by early August, with Walmart in line for up to $10.2 billion and Apple reported at $2.2 billion — while consumers had received nothing. CNN reported that the refund system lets only the parties who paid duties directly file claims, leaving ordinary shoppers no legal path to recover what they paid at the register.
NPR found that Home Depot collected about $730 million in refunds in a single quarter with no plan to repay customers, while Walmart said it would put its money toward lower prices rather than direct refunds. Shipping carriers — UPS, FedEx and DHL — were the honorable exception, pledging to pass refunds back because they had billed tariff fees line by line. Michael Ettlinger of the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy summed it up bluntly: “You can’t really design a worse tax than that.”
IV. The Bill So Far
Add it up and the scale is staggering. Treasury recorded $194.9 billion in customs duties in fiscal 2025, according to USAFacts — and in fiscal 2026, which closed September 30, gross customs collections reached $317.8 billion, with $144.6 billion refunded to the businesses that paid them, per the Monthly Treasury Statement as reported by The Money Overview. Before the trade war, the government collected under $80 billion a year.
Household tax hike · 2025
Average tariff tax increase per U.S. household last year, per the Tax Foundation — before the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA duties.
Feb 2025 – Jan 2026
What the average household paid in tariff costs over Trump’s first year back, per Joint Economic Committee Democrats, as examined by PolitiFact.
Going forward · per year
Annual cost to the typical household under current tariffs, including the new Canada levies, per the Yale Budget Lab via ABC News.
Refunded to importers · FY2026
Illegal duties returned to businesses last fiscal year — nearly half of everything collected — per Treasury data reported by The Money Overview.
Refunded to consumers
No consumer refunds on tariff-inflated prices as of August, per Sen. Warren’s investigation; class actions against Costco and Nintendo remain unresolved.
Canada, our largest partner
Section 338 tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian goods since August 22 — applied even to USMCA-qualifying products, per Covington.
V. The Countries He Spared
When Trump unveiled his “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025, he hit nearly the entire planet — allies like Japan, South Korea, Israel and even war-torn Ukraine. Four countries were conspicuously left off: Russia, Belarus, Cuba and North Korea. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said sanctions already precluded meaningful trade, as Reuters reported. That explanation never held up: WION noted that the U.S. still traded more with Russia than with places like Mauritius and Brunei, both of which were tariffed.
Russia was finally added this July, when the administration’s replacement Section 301 regime swept in 60 economies at 10% or 12.5%, according to the U.S. Trade Representative. Belarus, Cuba and North Korea remain off the list. Meanwhile Canada — a NATO ally that fought beside us in two world wars — now faces 50% tariffs and outright import bans on some products. The pattern speaks for itself: for more than a year, an American president treated the Kremlin more gently than Ottawa. That is not a trade strategy. It is a statement of whose friendship he values.
VI. Congress: Holder of the Power, Hider from the Duty
The Constitution does not leave this question open. Tariffs are taxes, and the taxing power belongs to Congress. The Supreme Court said exactly that in February. What Congress has done with its own power is the most damning part of this story.
Article I, Section 8: The Power to Lay Duties Belongs to Congress
The Constitution assigns Congress — not the president — the power to “lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises.” In Learning Resources, the Court held that tariffs are a distinct revenue-raising power reserved to the legislature, as Archer & Greiner summarized. Every tariff Trump has imposed since rests on a power Congress delegated — and can take back.
- IEEPA (1977): Struck down as a tariff authority, 6–3, on February 20, 2026.
- Section 122 (Trade Act of 1974): Allows a temporary surcharge of up to 15% for only 150 days unless Congress extends it. Trump used it within hours of losing at the Court; it expired July 24, and Congress never voted to extend it, per Global Trade Alert.
- Section 301 (Trade Act of 1974): Repurposed into a “forced labor” tariff on 60 economies with no rate cap and no expiration.
- Section 338 (Tariff Act of 1930): A Depression-era provision never before used to impose tariffs, now the basis for 50% duties and import bans on Canada, per the Congressional Research Service.
The accountability gap: Each time the courts or the calendar closed one door, the administration opened another — and the Republican majority in Congress declined to close any of them.
To be fair to the record, some members have tried. The Senate has repeatedly passed resolutions to end the Canada emergency tariffs; Sen. Tim Kaine’s measure cleared the chamber with four Republican votes, his office noted, while Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo called it counterproductive. In July, Senate Finance ranking member Ron Wyden introduced the Congressional Trade Powers Reform Act (S. 5081), which would require congressional approval for tariffs under Sections 201, 232 and 301 and repeal the Section 122 and 338 authorities entirely. It has not received a vote.
VII. How We Got Here
Get Involved Today
Contribute to our mission and turn your concerns into action.
VIII. The Republican Record: Block the Vote, Threaten the Dissenters
The House GOP’s strategy has not been to defend the tariffs on the merits; it has been to keep members from having to vote on them. As NBC News reported, House Republicans spent much of 2025 under a rule that barred the chamber from voting to cancel the president’s tariffs, and in February Speaker Mike Johnson tried to extend that gag through late July. It failed only because Thomas Massie, Kevin Kiley and Don Bacon broke ranks. Six Republicans in total then voted with Democrats to end the Canada tariffs. The president’s response was not an argument. It was a threat.
“Any Republican … that votes against TARIFFS will seriously suffer the consequences come Election time.”
— President Donald Trump on Truth Social, February 11, 2026, via NBC News
The resolution passed without a veto-proof margin, and the Republican leadership has offered no legislation to return a single tariff dollar to consumers. Instead, the party’s answer to the tariff tax has been case-by-case exemptions for vulnerable incumbents — relief distributed not by need, but by electoral math.
IX. What Democrats Are Promising
House Democrats have made the tariffs a centerpiece of their pitch. According to the Associated Press, via Spectrum News, Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries says his caucus will be united from day one on undoing the president’s tariff regime, alongside restoring Affordable Care Act tax credits, reversing Republican Medicaid cuts and forcing votes to end the war with Iran. The Christian Science Monitor reported that Jeffries wants Democrats to pass laws overturning the tariffs outright.
Honesty requires naming the obstacle. As the Monitor noted, Trump can veto any such bill, and overriding him takes two-thirds of both chambers. A Democratic House cannot repeal the tariffs alone. What it can do is end the gag rules, force recorded votes on every tariff action, advance Wyden-style reforms, subpoena the refund records and put every member on the record — which is precisely what the current majority has worked so hard to prevent.
X. What Trump Is Doing — and What It Reveals
Faced with a tariff bill he insists does not exist, the president has turned to promises of cash. At the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, he pledged a $5,000 “Trump Dividend” to every adult citizen — but only if Republicans win both chambers, as Fortune reported, finding that just 21% of voters believe he will pay it. Gray DC reported he has also promised $8 billion in direct payments to farmers hurt by tariffs and record diesel prices. No legislation authorizing either payment exists.
Look at the pattern as a whole. Tariffs imposed by decree, on authority the Supreme Court said he never had. Refunds routed to corporations while families got nothing. Allies punished harder than adversaries. Members of his own party threatened for voting their conscience. And now, with an election close, targeted relief for one senator and conditional checks dangled before voters. This is not the conduct of a leader managing an economy. It is the conduct of a politician managing a campaign — with the public’s money as the prop.
XI. What You Can Do
Voting matters most, but it is not the only lever. Here are five concrete steps, with an honest assessment of each.1Vote on November 3 — and confirm your registration now
Congress holds the tariff power. Control of the House and Senate determines whether that power is exercised or abandoned. Check your registration and polling place with your state’s official election office today.
Honest assessmentThe single highest-impact action available. A new majority cannot override a veto alone, but it can end the gag rules and force every tariff into the open.
2Ask your members of Congress where they stand on S. 5081
Call or write your senators and representative and ask whether they will cosponsor Sen. Wyden’s Congressional Trade Powers Reform Act and whether they would vote to end the Canada emergency tariffs. Ask for a yes or no.
Honest assessmentThe bill will not move this year. But on-the-record answers before Election Day are exactly what vulnerable incumbents want to avoid.
3Check for tariff surcharges you paid directly
If a carrier or retailer billed you an explicit tariff or duty fee, look up your invoices. UPS, FedEx and DHL have pledged to pass refunds back to the customers who bore those charges.
Honest assessmentReal money for people who imported packages directly — but most shoppers paid tariffs through higher shelf prices, which are not traceable.
4Press the retailers that got refunds
Major chains have reported billion-dollar refunds. Ask the companies you shop with — publicly, and as a customer — whether they will return any of it. Follow the consumer class actions already filed against companies like Costco and Nintendo.
Honest assessmentNone of those suits has been resolved, and individual recovery may be small. Public pressure has already produced price-cut pledges; it can produce more.
5Spend locally — and talk about who really pays
Small businesses have no lobbyist to win them an exemption. Support them, and when someone repeats the claim that foreign countries pay these tariffs, share the evidence: the importer pays at the border, and the cost lands on us.
Honest assessmentModest on its own, but public understanding is what turns a hidden tax into an election issue — and that is already happening in Maine.
Editorial Conclusion
A government that taxes its people without the consent of their representatives has abandoned the first principle this republic was built to defend. For two years, Donald Trump has done precisely that — and when the Supreme Court told him to stop, he found another statute, and the corporations kept the refunds.
Friday’s carve-out for Maine is not mercy. It is proof: the administration knows exactly who is paying, and it chooses to offer relief only when a Senate seat is at risk. Congress was given the power over tariffs so that no single man could tax a nation by decree. On November 3, Americans must elect a Congress that will use that power — or the next proclamation will simply be signed with less fear.
Sources & References
- NBC News — Trump administration cancels some Canada tariffs amid close midterm races
- CBC News — Trump to swap some tariffs on Canadian goods amid midterm pressure
- Global News — Trump removing some 50% tariffs on Canadian products, adding others
- The Hill — Collins says certain Canadian goods now tariff-exempt
- CNBC — The uneven cost of tariffs: Why some households will pay more than others
- Tax Foundation — Trump Tariffs Tracker: Rates, Revenue, and Impact
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — The Employment Situation — September 2026
- Trading Economics — United States economic calendar (Michigan consumer sentiment, Oct. 2026)
- Yale Budget Lab — State of U.S. Tariffs: January 19, 2026
- Holland & Knight — Supreme Court Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs: What Importers Need to Know
- SCOTUSblog — The remaining questions after the Supreme Court’s tariffs ruling
- Office of Sen. Elizabeth Warren — Warren Pushes Giant Corporations to Give Billions in Tariff Refunds Back to Consumers
- CNN — Corporate America got billions in tariff refunds. Where’s your cut?
- NPR — Businesses are getting tariff refunds. Why aren’t consumers getting their cut?
- USAFacts — How much revenue does the federal government collect from tariffs?
- The Money Overview — Tariffs collected $317.8B in FY2026; $173.2B after refunds
- PolitiFact — Did tariffs cost American families more than $1,700?
- ABC News — Tariffs will cost US households over $1,000 a year, Yale Budget Lab says
- Covington & Burling — Section 338 tariffs on Canada take effect as Canada announces retaliation
- The Korea Times / Reuters — Russia, Cuba and North Korea escape worst of Trump’s tariff wrath
- WION — Trump’s new tariffs hit Ukraine but not Russia. Here’s why
- Office of the U.S. Trade Representative — USTR Takes Action in Forced Labor Section 301 Investigations
- Archer & Greiner — Supreme Court Invalidates Tariffs; Importers May Be Entitled to Refunds
- Global Trade Alert — From IEEPA to Section 122: What Changed on 20 February 2026
- Congressional Research Service — U.S. Tariffs on Canadian Imports: Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930
- Office of Sen. Tim Kaine — Senate votes to block tariffs on Canada
- Senate Finance Committee — Wyden Introduces the Congressional Trade Powers Reform Act
- NBC News — House votes to nix Trump’s tariffs on Canada in rebuke of trade agenda
- Spectrum News / AP — House Democrats plan agenda for first 100 days if they win power
- Christian Science Monitor — Democrats plan investigations, affordability efforts if they reclaim Congress
- Fortune — Trump keeps changing who gets his $5,000 dividend
- WSAW / Gray DC — Trump promises cash payments ahead of midterms
Related News
